Analysis: Two numbers that should worry Republicans about Trump 2024

But even as Republican go hurtling toward what feels like that inevitable outcome, there are signs that Trump as the GOP nominee come 2024 is a fraught proposition for the party.

1) 54% believe that in his actions after the 2020 election, Trump “went so far that he threatened American democracy.” (Just 38% said he was “just exercising his right to contest the election.”)

2) 51% said that Trump has “committed serious federal crimes” in regards to the various ongoing investigations into him.

Consider those two data points. A majority of the electorate believes that the former President of the United States actively threatened American democracy and committed federal crimes.

And yet, despite those numbers, Republicans — or at least the Republican base — seem set to nominate him again to the highest office in the country.

Which seems, well, like a risk?

(Worth noting: In the Times/Siena poll, Trump takes 42% to Joe Biden’s 45% in hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup.)

The challenge for Republicans is that Trump remains extremely popular with the GOP base. Which would make it very tough for anyone — even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — to knock him off in a primary fight.

But numbers like these should worry Republicans about what they would be getting with Trump as the nominee. Are voters really going to support a candidate they believe broke federal laws?

The Point: Welcome to the conundrum of Trump — unbeatable (or close to it) in a primary and deeply problematic in a general election.

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