Argentine inflation forecast at 46% for year 2021, 3.9% for March alone

Argentine inflation forecast at 46% for year 2021, 3.9% for March alone

Saturday, April 10th 2021 – 08:53 UTC

The Argentine Central Bank foresees an official exchange rate of $ 160 / US $ 1 for the end of 2022.

Argentina’s Central Bank Friday announced the yearly inflation for 2021 was expected to reach 46%, while figures for the past month of March were around 3.9%. The official peso/US dollar exchange rate was foreseen at $ 115/ US$ 1 by the end of this year.

The Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey (REM, in Sapnish) also anticipated 3.4% for April with “a downward trajectory” for the coming months, together with a yearly GDP 6.7% increase and a primary fiscal deficit of $ 1,636 billion pesos.

REM analysts have adjusted their monthly projections for the exchange rate downwards. They also foresee it at S 160 / US $ 1 by the end of 2022.

This year’s GDP growth would highlight some sort of recovery after a 9.9% fall in 2020. Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation, the estimate for the first quarter of the year rose by 0.9 in relation to the previous survey up to 1.9%, ”[thus] continuing the recovery evidenced in the third and fourth quarters (13.1% and 4.5%) after the impact of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020”, according to the Central Bank’s report.

For the second quarter of 2021, they forecast a decrease in the growth rate of activity to 0.3% (unchanged compared to what they expected at the end of February), with the expansion forecast for the third quarter also being 0.3%.

REM analysts also project exports by the end of 2021 worth US $ 62,428 million, while imports would be US $ 49,224 million.

Meanwhile, unemployment for the first quarter of 2021 would be 11.2%, 11.5% for the second quarter and 11% for the rest of the year.

Primary fiscal deficit for 2021 decreased as per the new projections to $ 1,636.0 billion, after a deficit of $ 1,750.0 billion in 2020.

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